Adcc 2009 picks!!!

[Firebird]

What are your picks for this weeks Adcc?

Mine are

65.9KG Rubens "Cobrinha" Charles

76.9KG Pablo Popovitch

87.9KG Andre Galvao (although i want Gunni to smash it!!!)

98.9KG Xande Ribeiro

99KG + Roberto "Cyborg" Abreu

Superfight Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza


Who you guys got??? So hard to choose!!!

[AJones]

Mine are probably all the favs but ill go with

65.9KG Rubens "Cobrinha" Charles

76.9KG Marcelo Garcia

87.9KG Braulio Estima

98.9KG Cant go against my boy Marcio “Ped de Pano” Cruz.

99KG + Saulo Ribeiro

Superfight Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza

Absolute Xande Ribeiro

Sooooooooooo hard to choose 5 days baby

[BeD_pIst]

Les Allen should take the super fight easy, arm bar on Jacare

[Levo]

It's STACKED this year so anyone could take it. Pretty much agree with the first picks though.

65.9KG - Probably Cobrinha, but will be cheering for Leo Vieira, Jeff Glover and Ryan Hall.

76.9KG - I hope Marcelo Garcia wins but Pablo Popovitch could take it this time. Interested to see Kron compete and will be cheering for Bill Cooper.

87.9KG - Probably Andre Galvao. Stacked division though, with Braulio and Rafael Lovato Jr amongst the top contenders.

98.9KG - Xande. Don't know a lot of the guys in this division though, could be a surprise or two.

+99KG - Would like Saulo to win but think he'll get squished by the much bigger guys. It'd be cool if Werdum won again but gotta go with Roberto "Cyborg" Abreu or Jeff Monson.

Superfight - I'm a fan of Jacare but fear Drysdale is too big.

Women's -60kg - Kyra Gracie.

Women's +60kg - Lana Stephanac could be too much for her smaller opponents. Would be cool if Penny Thomas or Hannette Staack took it though.

Nathan

[widge milward]

Glover
Garcia
Galvao
Xande
Monson
Drysdale

[SDR]

Cobrinha
Garcia
Galvao
Xande
Werdum
Drysdale

[Mike Bishop]

It's STACKED this year so anyone could take it. Pretty much agree with the first picks though.

65.9KG - Probably Cobrinha, but will be cheering for Leo Vieira, Jeff Glover and Ryan Hall.

76.9KG - I hope Marcelo Garcia wins but Pablo Popovitch could take it this time. Interested to see Kron compete and will be cheering for Bill Cooper.

87.9KG - Probably Andre Galvao. Stacked division though, with Braulio and Rafael Lovato Jr amongst the top contenders.

98.9KG - Xande. Don't know a lot of the guys in this division though, could be a surprise or two.

+99KG - Would like Saulo to win but think he'll get squished by the much bigger guys. It'd be cool if Werdum won again but gotta go with Roberto "Cyborg" Abreu or Jeff Monson.

Superfight - I'm a fan of Jacare but fear Drysdale is too big.

Women's -60kg - Kyra Gracie.

Women's +60kg - Lana Stephanac could be too much for her smaller opponents. Would be cool if Penny Thomas or Hannette Staack took it though.

Nathan

Isn't Kyra Gracie out ?

[J-Sho]

Frat warning.

-67.9 kg
2007 Result: 1st Rani Yahya 2nd Leo Vieira 3rd Baret Yoshida
2005 Result: 1st Leo Vieira 2nd Rani Yahya 3rd Marcio Feitosa
Competitors (as at 22/09): 1. Rani Yahya. Brazil (ADCC World Champion); 2. Kouhei Yasumi. Japan (Asian Trials winner); 3. Rafael Mendes. Brazil (South American Trials winner); 4. Nicolas Renier. France (European Trials winner); 5. Timo-Juhani Hirvikangas. Finland (European Champion); 6. Ryan Hall. USA (North American east coast Trials winner); 7. David Marinakis. Australia (Pacific Trials winner); 8. Jayson Patino. USA (North American west coast Trials winner); 9. Rubens “Cobrinha” Chales. USA; 10. Leo Vieira. Brazil; 11. Baret Yoshida. USA; 12. Jeff Glover. USA; 13. Hiroshi “Iron” Nakamura. Japan; 14. Justin Rader. USA; 15. Jeff Curran. USA; 16. Joel Tudor. USA.
My thoughts: At the 2007 edition of ADCC, Cobrinha was pitched against the JJ Machado Black Belt Jamie Walsh in an alternate match. Walsh did not know who his opponent was or pedigree before the match, but was swiftly enlightened. Presumably an equally unenlightened soul at Bookmaker.com will be looking for a new job soon having offered odds the American Grappler “Ruben Chales” at as high as +1500. Now at +100, they are surely aware that the 100% Brazilian “Cobrinha” has an everyday name he uses when not on the mats and a lot of happy gamblers will be keeping their fingers crossed this weekend. The linemakers must have only looked at previous ADCC results, which obviously does not tell the whole story and certainly is the only reason the odds on Rani can be so short. The odds would have you believe that Rani and Leozinho will be in their third successive final and everyone else can go home, but to ignore “Cobrinha” and Rafael Mendes and to discount Ryan Hall and Jeff Glover seems wrong to me. Former Longboard Surfing World Champion Joel Tudor may also be hoping for a further opportunity to submit Rani after his victory at the American Nationals.
As with all of these categories, the initial bracket will be critical in determining the path to glory for these athletes and without knowing what seeding (if any) will be applied, Mendes and Cobrinha may well end up facing one another before the final. I am not sure that either Rani or Leo will make it to the final and assuming Mendes/Cobrinha happens one one side of the bracket, I think we might see either Glover or Hall making an appearance against the winner for the gold. The question remains… how much 50/50 guard (and counters and counters to the counters and counters to the counters to the counters) will be in evidence?
My prediction: The division with the potential for the most exciting matches sees Cobrinha extend his BJJ Gi dominance to the realm of No-Gi.


-76.9kg
2007 Result: 1st Marcelo Garcia 2nd Pablo Popovitch 3rd Andre Galvao
2005 Result: 1st Marcelo Garcia 2nd Pablo Popovitch 3rd Jake Shields
Competitors (as at 22/09): 1. Marcelo Garcia. Brazil (ADCC World Champion); 2. K-taro Nakamura. Japan (Asian Trials winner); 3. Murilo Santana. Brazil (South American Trials winner); 4. Marcelo Azevedo. Italy (European Trials winner); 5. Toni Linden. Finland (European Champion); 6. Don Ortega. USA (North American east coast Trials winner); 7. Rodney Ellis. Australia (Pacific Trials winner); 8. Enrico Cocco. USA (North American west coast Trials winner); 9. Kron Gracie. USA; 10. Pablo Popovich. USA; 11. Yoshiyuki “Zenko” Yoshida. Japan; 12. Milton Vieira. Brazil; 13. Mike Fowler. USA; 14. Ben Askren. USA; 15. Gregor Gracie. Brazil; 16. Leo Santos. Brazil.
My thoughts: Despite not having competed in No-Gi since the 2007 edition of ADCC, the bookmakers and fans think this is as close as it gets to a foregone conclusion and Marcelo Garcia will become the first 4-Time weight category champion at ADCC. With Galvao now campaigning at a heavier weight class in the Gi and No-Gi, Garcia’s main challenges will come once again from Pablo Popovich (twice runner-up to Marcelo) and Murilo Santana. Mike Fowler is a later replacement for Bill Cooper and will be looking to repeat his run in 2007 when he beat defeated former champions Saulo Ribeiro and Renzo Gracie. Although there are two Gracies in contention, it seems a step to far to expect either to beat Marcelo, even with any potential Aura boost Rickson can give them. One interesting addition to the category is a freestyle wrestler of genuine pedigree in Ben Askren a 2 time NCAA champion (and 4 time finalist) and 2008 Olympic team member. Whilst again unlikely to beat Garcia, his wrestling and athleticism could spell real trouble for most of the field.
My prediction: Marcelo to make history and take his 4th title in a row (and Askren to challenge both photographers reactions and Rhadi Ferguson’s title with the biggest throws at an ADCC).


-87.9kg
2007 Result: 1st Demian Maia 2nd Flavio Almeida 3rd Tarsis Humphreys
2005 Result: 1st Ronaldo “Jacare” 2nd Demian Maia 3rd Saulo Ribeiro
Competitors (as at 22/09): 1. Tarsis Humphreys. Brasil; 2. Kazuhiro Nakamura. Japan (Asian Trials winner); 3. André Galvão. Brazil (South American Trials winner)4. Kassim Annan. France (European Trials winner); 5. Trond Saksenvik. Norway (European Champion); 6. Jason Selva. USA (North American east coast Trials winner); 7. Igor Praporshchikov. Australia (Pacific Trials winner); 8. Chris Weidman. USA (North American west coast Trials winner); 9. Gunnar Nelson. Iceland; 10. Rafael Lovato Jr. Usa; 11. Daniel Tabera. Spain; 12. Braulio Estima. Brazil; 13. Bruno Bastos. Brazil; 14. Tom Lawlor. USA; 15. Jorge Santiago. Brazil; 16. James Brasco. USA.
My thoughts: With no Maia, Almeida or Barral (why does the current Gi World Champion at this weight not get an invite?), on paper this should be a 3 way shoot out between Braulio Estima (back in his actual weight division after being made to compete in -98.9kg at the 2007 edition where he took silver); Tarsis Humphreys and Andre Galvao. Galvao and Humphreys may have the psychological boost of wins over Estima at the 2008 BJJ Mundials and World Pro BJJ Finals respectively, but I think this category will see Braulio victorious over one of the other two in the final. Bastos and Lovato Jr will also be looking to stake their claim for a podium finish.
My prediction: Braulio adds to his BJJ Mundials Gold.

[J-Sho]

-98.9kg
2007 Result: 1st Alexandre Ribeiro 2nd Braulio Estima 3rd Robert Drysdale
2005 Result: 1st Roger Gracie 2nd Alexandre "Cacareco" 3rd Alexandre Ribeiro
Competitors (as at 22/09): 1. Xande Ribeiro. Brazil (ADCC World Champion); 2. Yoshiyuki Nakanishi. Japan; 3. Glover Teixeira. Brazil (South American Trials winner); 4. Radek Turek. Poland (European Trials winner); 5. Andreas Olsen. Norway (European Champion); 6. Rafael Davies. USA (North American east coast Trials winner); 7. Anthony Perosh. Australia (Pacific Trials winner); 8. Gerardi Rinaldi. USA (North American west coast Trials winner); 9. Dean Lister. USA; 10. Rodrigo Henriques Cavaca. Brazil; 11. Vinny Magalhães. Brazil; 12. Vesa Vuori.Finland; 13. Tomasz Szczerek. Poland; 14. Marcio “Pe de Pano” Cruz. Brazil; 15. Ricco Rodriguez. USA; 16. Ilir Latifi. Sweden.
My thoughts: It is no understatement to say that this is a tough division to win. Even with Braulio Estima fighting at his normal weight this time, there are 4 former Mundials and/or ADCC champions present (Lister, Rodriguez, Ribeiro and Pe De Pano) present, two of whom (Xande and Pe De Pano) are multiple time BJJ Gi Absolute World Champions and two of whom (Ricco and Pe De Pano) must be in great shape to cut to this weight. The odds appear to be in line with this assessment, but I think one shouldn’t over look the South American Trials winner, Glover Teixeira, who is a very capable grappler (and also well priced at +1500!), Rodrigo Cavaca or TUF 9 competitor Vinny Magalhães who will also put on some good fights.
My prediction: Xande will be hungry for success after injury forced him to pull out of the BJJ Mundials this year, if he is 100% he should be able to take the gold, but he knows full well that there are others poised to take his place if he falters.


+99kg
2007 Result: 1st Fabricio Werdum 2nd Rolles Gracie 3rd Marcio Cruz
2005 Result: 1st Jeff Monson 2nd Gabriel Gonzaga 3rd Fabricio Werdum
Competitors (as at 22/09): 1. Fabricio Werdum. Brazil (ADCC World Champion); 2. Kouji Kanechika. Japan (Asian Trials winner); 3. Antoine Jaoude. Brazil (South American Trials winner); 4. Tomasz Janiszewski. Poland (European Trials winner); 4. Janne-Pekka Pietiläinen. Finland (European Champion); 6. Asa Fuller. USA (North American east coast Trials winner); 7. Denis Roberts. Australia (Pacific Trials winner); 8. Tom DeBlass. USA (North American west coast Trials winner); 9. ?; 10. Saulo Ribeiro. Brazil; 11. Rogent Lloret. Spain; 12. Tom Erikson.USA; 13. Jeff Monson.USA; 14. Roberto “Cyborg” Abreu. Brasil; 15. Gabriel Gonzaga. USA; 16. Karol Bedorf. Poland.
My thoughts: 2005 saw the massively experienced grappler and MMA fighter Jess Monson beat Gabriel ”Napao” and Werdum to take the Gold, but with his absence in 2007, Werdum stepped up to take the mantle of champion. Despite the absence of Ricco Rodrigeuz and Pe De Pano from this category, with some legitimate wrestlers (Jaoude and Roberts); one of the most decorated (and popular) men in submissions grappling (Saulo) and also the tough Roberto “Cyborg”, this should be an entertaining category albeit a little slower paced than -67.9kg.
My prediction: Jeff Monson to frustrate his Brazilian rivals and take the gold once more.


Absolute
2007 Result: 1st Robert Drysdale 2nd Marcelo Garcia 3rd Andre Galvao
2005 Result: 1st Roger Gracie 2nd Ronaldo “Jacare” 3rd Marcelo Garcia
Competitors: To be confirmed…
My thoughts: With Drysdale out due to his involvement in the Superfight and Roger similarly out, there are 1 former Absolute winner (Dean Lister) and a number of Absolute medalists (Marcelo Garcia, Ricco Rodriguez and “Cacareco”) who will be amongst those looking for the ultimate accolade in submission grappling. With a very strong field to choose from this may be a tough one to call and large number of other competitors such as Marcio “Pe De Pano”, Jeff Monson, Gabriel “Napao, Xande Ribeiro, Braulio Estima can also consider themselves legitimate contenders.
My prediction: The fans are in for a treat and if Ricco, Lister and Monson all enter, a non Brazilian winner is a genuine possibility.


Superfight
2007 Result: 1st Roger Gracie 2nd Jon Olav Einemo
2005 Result: 1st Dean Lister 2nd JJ Machado
Competitors: Robert Drysdale & Ronaldo “Jacare”
My thoughts: Obviously the previous winners have no bearing on this superfight style match and with Roger out due to a combination of the Mumps and a knee injury, Jacare has been parachuted in to keep this match interesting. Both competitors have tasted gold at the BJJ Mundials and Copa do Mundo and ADCC and the bookmakers have Drysdale as the favourite, but I can’t see him pulling off another shock submission as he did in 2007. I think Jacare’s relentless attacking style will see him take the result in a hopefully fast paced and entertaining match.
My prediction: Just when you thought it was safe to enter the water…


Women’s -60kg
2007 Result: 1st n/a 2nd n/a 3rd n/a
2005 Result: 1st Kyra Gracie 2nd Leka Vieira 3rd Megumi Fuji
Competitors (as at 22/09): 1. Bianca Andrade. Brazil 2. Sayaka Shioda. Japan (ADCC World Champion); 3. Megumi Fuji. Japan (Asian & Pacific Trials winner); 4. Michelle Tavares. Brazil (South American Trials winner); 5. Laurence Cousin. France (European Trials winner); 6. Ina Steffensen. Denmark (European Champion); 7. Hillary Williams. USA (North American Trials winner); 8. Luanna Alzuguir. Brazil
My thoughts: With only two weight divisions. With Kyra Gracie’s late withdrawal from proceedings, this is a fairly open division, with a number of current and former BJJ and ADCC World Champions. With every competitor a potential winner
My prediction: Mega Megu wins and reignites the Catch vs BJJ debate on the Underground.


Women’s +60kg
2007 Result: 1st n/a 2nd n/a 3rd n/a
2005 Result: 1st Julian Borges 2nd Stacey Cartwright 3rd Kizma Button
Competitors (as at 22/09): 1. Hannette Staack. USA (ADCC World Champion); 2. Penny Thomas. USA (ADCC World Champion); 3. Hitomi Hiraiwa. Japan (Asian & Pacific Trials winner);4. Rosângela Conceição. Brazil (South American Trials winner); 5. Ida Hansson. Sweden (European Trials winner); 6. Shanti Abelha. Denmark (European Champion); 7. Lana Stephanac. USA (North American Trials winner); 8. Cris Cyborg. Brazil
My thoughts: Sadly there are now only two weight categories for the women competitors, giving a clear size disadvantage for some in the +60kg category. Staack, Thomas and Stephanac, all current BJJ World Champions (double Champion in Stephanac’s case) and Conceição are likely to fill the semi finals.
My prediction: Hannette Staack to emerge victorious.


Women’s Absolute
2007 Result: 1st Hannette Staack 2nd Rosângela Conceição 3rd Kelly Paul
2005 Result: 1st n/a 2nd n/a 3rd n/a
Competitors: To be confirmed
My prediction: Hannette Staack to double up

[ROBGBUK1]

Mine are

65.9KG Rubens "Cobrinha" Charles

76.9KG Marcello

87.9KG Braulio Estima (Galvao is gonna be tough but Braulio is 100% fit this time)

98.9KG Xande Ribeiro

99KG + Roberto "Cyborg" Abreu

Superfight Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza

[Rob T]

87.9KG Braulio Estima (Galvao is gonna be tough but Braulio is 100% fit this time)

Can't wait to see Braulio smash him!

[ROBGBUK1]

Can't wait to see Braulio smash him!


I think a lot will depend on the brackets, lets just hope Galvao & Tarsis are on the same side, whoever gets the easier route to the final will have a definate advantage.

[marc goddard]

would love to see braulio win the adcc, he would then be in that "special" place, of mundial and adcc gi and no gi.

pass my best on rob please mate.

[BruceLeeMMAfighting.net]

65.9KG:
1st Round: Yahya, Glover, Cobrinha, Renier/Yoshida, Mendes, Hall, Vieira
2nd Round: Glover, Cobrinha/Hall, Mendes
Semis: Cobrinha/Hall
Finalist: Hall
Rooting for: Hall

76.9KG
1st Round: Garcia, Kron, Fowler, Nakamura/Popovitch, Askern, Santos, Santana
2nd Rond: Kron, Fowler/Popovitch, Santos
Semis: Fowler/Popovitch
Finalist: Popovitch
Rooting for: Fowler

87.9KG
1st Round: Galvao, Weidman, Humphreys, Avellan/Estima, Nelson, Lawlor, Bastos
2nd Round: Galvao, Humphreys/Estima, Lawlor
Semis: Humphreys/Estima
Finalist: Estima
Rooting for: Estima

98.9KG
1st Round: Xande, Turek, PeDePano, Henriques/Lister, Teixeira, Rodriguez, Nakanishi
2nd Round: Xande, PeDePano, Lister, Rodriguez
Semis: Xande, Rodriguez
Finalist: Xande
Rooting for: Rodriquez

99KG +
1st Round: Werdum, Jaoude, Barral, Ribeiro/Monson, Erickson, Abreu, Fuller
2nd Round: Werdum, Barall/Monson, Abreu
Semis: Werdum/Monson
Finalist: Monson
Rooting for: Barall


Superfight: Drysdale

[Reason65]

65.9kg Yahya
76.9kg Popovitch
87.9kg Braulio
98.9kg Xande
99kg Ribeiro

Womens
Megumi Fujii
Ida Hansson


ABS Jacare