was going to help you out on that, but bestfightodds which I use doesn't have all the odds up yet.
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Tom Watson 2.10 vs Brad Tavares 1.71- Big fight for both guys. Watson has been a dominant fighter on the European scene but a big question has followed him- how well can he do against elite level competition? Tavares by no stretch of the imagination is at or even close to the top of the 185 pound division, but he still young and improving and could make some noise before it is all over. If Tavares can add a solid name like Watson to his resume he might just get a push up in competition to the next level. I was really hoping that Watson would sign with Strikeforce and for a brief time there was some talk of it. I feel that he would have matched up much better with their roster at 185 and could have made some serious noise. In the UFC he will need to prove that he can continuously stuff takedown attempts and keep the fight in his realm which would be primarily a kickboxing match. Unfortunately for Watson the majority of takedown attempts that I have seen sent his way have been successful. In his battle aginst Jesse Taylor, Taylor took him down regularly and with relative ease and you take into consideration that they were fighting in a ring. Inside a cage, Tavares will be able to pin Watson on the wall, beat up and work for takedowns while limiting the threat of getting tagged in an exchange after he initially closes the distances. Tavares has looked good and shown signs of improvement, which can only be expected for an athlete both young in age and experience. The big issues is- will Tavares fight a smart fight? Will he get dragged into a striking match which will be much closer then a grappling based fight. Keep in mind that the crowd will be backing their boy Watson and most likely every time Tavares ties up or scores a takedown they will boo. This could result in the ref making quick standups or Tavares feeling the pressure and abandoning his gameplan. I think the later is the least likely of the two scenarios. Look for Tavares to tie up, use the cage along with takedowns to limit Watson offense and damage is conditioning. If Watson can catch him he could hurt him, but Tavaresís striking is decent enough to hold his own on the feet. I have to back the more well rounded fighter and at $1.71 I like those odds. He will certainly make an appearance on my value list and could be a candidate of the Confidence list ( I do them after the write-ups are done). For Watson he does have some value, but the issues of is TDD is too great for me to consider investing until I can see what he can do at this level.
Gunnar Nelson/ DaMarques Johnson Total Rounds Under 2.5- This is the bet to make if you are not sold on Nelson in his debut; if he wins your probably getting the under with a sub and if he loses he probably got stopped via KO or TKO. Johnson always finishes or gets finished so the under is the play to make every time he is involved. Play the under 2.5 or 1.5.