UFC 158 Predictions- Kamikaze Overdrive
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz Predictions- Saturday March 16th 2013
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz Predictions- This Episode of the show covers Predictions for the 5 Card Fights on the UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz Card.
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UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz Main Card
170lbs- Georges St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz - for welterweight title
170lbs- Carlos Condit vs. Johny Hendricks
170lbs- Jake Ellenberger vs. Nate Marquardt
185lbs- Chris Camozzi vs. Nick Ring
155lbs- Colin Fletcher vs. Mike Ricci
170lbs- Patrick Cote vs. Bobby Voelker
145lbs- Antonio Carvalho vs. Darren Elkins
170lbs- Jordan Mein vs. Dan Miller
155lbs- Daron Cruickshank vs. John Makdessi
170lbs- Quinn Mulhern vs. Rick Story
135lbs- TJ Dillashaw vs. Issei Tamura
135lbs- Reuben Duran vs. George Roop
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GSP, Hendricks, Ellenberger, Ricci, Carvalho, Mein, Cruickshank, and Dillashaw
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On the main card I'm going for:
GSP (but would love diaz to win. That would be Dana whites worst fckin nightmare!)
Nate 'the cheat' marquardt
& Fletcher (fingers crossed!)
170lbs- Jordan Mein (26-8-0) vs Dan Miller (14-6-0 1NC)
Eleven fight UFC veteran Dan Miller makes his second Welterweight appearance when he welcomes Canadian Jordan Mein to the UFC. Miller defeated Ricardo Funch in his divisional debut while Mein has won back to back fights and 8 of his last 9.
Of Jordan Meinís 26 wins 21 have come by way of finish (14 knockouts and 7 submissions) including stopping both Evangelista Santos and Joe Riggs. He finished his run in Strikeforce with a 2-1 record showing a predominantly striking based attack in his two victories. He averages just over 4 strikes per minute including landing 98 against Tyler Stinson. His boxing is crisp, he will target the body, and he pieces together smooth combinations. He will also mix in leg strikes and isnít afraid to get a little bit flashy with a spinning back fist. His use of elbows to finish both Santos and most recently Forrest Petz was impressive and the power in his strikes was apparent with the damage he left on Stinsonís face. Fundamentally he executes everything well; solid footwork, he uses angles when attacking, and his head movement is spot on. He is also an effective counter striker- sliding just out range of his opponent while landing his own strikes, even landing punches as he moves backward. He has only one defeat by TKO early in his career and the only major concern from his two Strikeforce wins was Santoís success continually landing heavy leg kicks.
Dan Miller is the definition of a scrappy fighter. He has just a single win by knockout, but he dropped Ricardo Funch with a counter left and he also stunned Rousimar Palhares during an exchange. He will push forward with strikes often attacking with a 1-2 combination and sometimes finishing with a low or body kick. Against Michael Bisping he had some success landing a quick overhand right that backed up the Brit a couple of times. He will also work from the clinch with some dirty boxing and try to overwhelm his opponent with his pressure. He was taking some damage on the feet against Funch and his aggressive style does create openings especially when he pushes forward.
On the mat Miller comes from a wrestling background and holds a BJJ Black belt with 9 wins by submission- 4 in the Octagon. He averages 1.81 takedowns per fight at a 55% completion rate, although he isnít the type to put up huge takedown numbers. Arguably his best submission move is his guillotine which he caught Funch with and he will attempt it from multiple positions. Additionally, his defensive grappling is solid considering he has never been finished despite facing elite level grapplers like Rousimar Palhares and Demian Maia. Miller would benefit from attempting a few more takedowns as Meinís only loss in his last 9 fights came against Tyron Woodley who was able to ground Jordan for most of the fight. Mein has a number of submission wins, but hasnít shown much desire to use his grappling skills offensively in recent bouts. Miller has the grappling wherewithal to take over a fight, but often elects to use a more fan friendly striking based attack.
Dan Millerís aggressive style is usually an advantage, but the manner in which he wades forward with his strikes will create openings for Mein to counter. Look for Jordan to use angles to avoid Millerís offense while doing his own damage. Other then the Woodley fight, the Canadian has had success dictating the pace of his bouts and should be able to here with his superior striking game so my prediction is Jordan Mein to defeat Dan Miller by decision.
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz Main Card
170lbs- Georges St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz - for welterweight title Diaz round 4 stoppage so hope it happens followed him since i was a kid.
170lbs- Carlos Condit vs. Johny Hendricks Hendricks judges
170lbs- Jake Ellenberger vs. Nate Marquardt marquardt round 2 gnp
185lbs- Chris Camozzi vs. Nick Ring
155lbs- Colin Fletcher vs. Mike Ricci Freakshow round 1 knock out (please make it happen)
didn't realize Elkins had won this many in a row (even taking out the Omigawa "win")
Might have to change my pick to him.
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145lbs- Antonio Carvalho (15-5-0) vs Darren Elkins (16-2-0)
A pair or rising Featherweights battle on the undercard with Darren Elkins who is currently undefeated as a Featherweight battling Antonio Carvalho. Elkins has won 4 consecutive bouts since making the cut down from 155 while Carvalho has earned two straight wins since dropping his promotional debut.
Comparing credentials this is far from the typical striker versus grappler matchup, as both fighters are capable of winning a fight on their feet or on the ground. That being said, Darren Elkins is at his strongest when he can implement a wrestling heavy attack and Antonio Carvalho has won his last two fights both on the basis of his striking skills.
Elkins averages 2.69 takedowns per fight at a 42% accuracy rate, which aren’t the type of numbers that jump off the page, but it his ability to land one takedown and maintain control that is most impressive. He completed 6 of 7 attempts against Steven Siler showcasing a myriad of techniques to get the fight to the ground, but the key to his success is his top control and pressure. He has an active top game mixing up ground and pound, transitions, and submission attempts. Siler was under constant pressure from Elkins, and while he showed a lot of heart and solid defense he wasn’t able to keep the American off him long enough to do any damage off his back or standing.
Carvalho is far from an inexperienced grappler with a Black belt in BJJ and a Green belt in Judo. He has won a trio of fights by submission and took the opening round of his fight with Felipe Arantes with a grappling heavy assault. Carvalho has yet to be taken down in his 3 UFC appearances, but he also yet to defend a takedown attempt which will surely change in this bout.
Carvalho should hold the striking advantage over Elkins using a blend of kicks and punches. Of his 15 wins 7 have come by knockout including his first round KO of Daniel Pineda. He has some pro kickboxing experience along with a Shotokan black belt. He averages just over 3 strikes per minute and used a kick heavy attack to brutalize Rodrigo Damm’s lead leg. He shows hardly any wind up prior to delivering his leg strikes which makes them difficult to defend against. Slowing down his opponent is a huge benefit of attacking the legs, but he will need to be mindful of Elkins using the kicks as an entry point for a takedown.
Elkins uses a lot of movement on the feet, before pushing forward to attack with flurries of punches. He likes to dip his left shoulder and come over the top with a right hand, which could leave him exposed for Carvalho to counter with a high kick. Similar to most grapplers, he likes to follow behind his punches to initiate a clinch. He will try to take the fight to the ground from this position, but he will also work over the body with knees along with using some dirty boxing. He has lost just once by knock which was the result of a cut and while Diego Brandao’s early onslaught had him in trouble he showed in that fight how tough he is to put away.
Carvalho needs to maintain distance with his kicks and use his Judo defensively to stay vertical along his BJJ to make the ground an undesirable option for his opponent. The Canadian has never faced an American trained wrestler and he has a tendency to stand directly in front of his opponent which will make him an easy target for Elkins to either shoot on or tie up with. Elkins has to be careful not to stand too long with Carvalho, watch out for counters when he closes the distance, and get the fight to the ground as soon as possible. Elkins’s smothering top is not only an offensive weapon, but also diminishes his opponent’s striking skills by wearing out his adversary’s arms, so my prediction is Darren Elkins to defeat Antonio Carvalho by decision.
135lbs- TJ Dillashaw (7-1-0) vs Issei Tamura (7-3-0)
In one of two Bantamweight bouts on the Facebook portion of the prelims TJ Dillashaw fights Issei Tamura. Tamura is 1-1 in the UFC with both of his fights ending by knockout most recently coming off a defeat against Raphael Assuncao. Dillashaw has won back to back bouts over Wael Watson and Vaughan Lee after sustaining the first and only defeat of his career in the finals of the Ultimate Fighter against John Dodson.
Tamura made his UFC debut as an injury replacement which isn’t surprising considering he had lost 2 of 3 prior to signing. He debuted fighting at Featherweight and picked up a second round knockout of Tiequan Zhang before dropping to 135 for his second bout. Despite the KO win he isn’t known for his finishing ability with 7 of his 10 fights going the distance. His striking offense in both fights was limited to a total of 20 significant punches and for the most part he is more of a wrestler then a striker. Even though both of his opponents had a combined 20 wins by submission, he attempted (unsuccessfully) to take each fight to the mat. It is hard to determine Tamura’s comfort level off his back and if he can’t use his wrestling offensive he might be best suited to focus on keeping this fight standing.
Dillashaw is an Alpha Male product and an NCAA Division I wrestler. In his 3 fight UFC career he has put up some impressive numbers averaging 3.86 takedowns per fight completing 1 of every 2 attempts. He averages an overwhelming 4.63 strikes per minute while limiting his opponents to just 1.34. His noteworthy striking numbers can be directly attributed to his wrestling. After securing a takedown he is relentless with his control and ground strikes never letting up which was the key to his win over Watson and to many of his victories on the show. He has 3 wins by submission including tapping out Vaughan Lee where he took his back standing and locked in a neck crank. The biggest area of concern for Dillashaw is his striking defense. With only 7 pro fights he is still rounding out his stand-ups skills. He got obliterated by the big right hand of Dodson and had a few tense moments in the early going against Lee when the Brit was walking him down with strikes.
TJ wanted to test out his striking in his last fight which almost cost him and he may take that route again here, but if proceedings do not go as planned he will fall back on his wrestling. If Tamura can defend the shot and keep vertical he has proven he has fight ending power, but that is going to be a difficult task. Look for Dillashaw to overwhelm Tamura with his pace and physical strength both from the clinch and on the mat so my prediction is TJ Dillashaw to defeat Issei Tamura by submission.
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UFC 158 Public Picks: http://www.kamikazeoverdrive.net/mma_public_picks/
Nick Ring/ Chris Camozzi Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.40- 15 combined Decisions and 7 of 11 UFC fights have gone the distance. Camozzi has been finished 3 times, but he is a tough guy to finish and Ring has never been put away. This is going to be grueling fight that could be tough for the judges. Get your win before Buffer calls it and play the over.
Antonio Carvalho $2.79 vs Darren Elkins $1.50
Carvalho has slowly started creeping into the conversation at Featherweight. Not quite the title contention conversation, but instead the one about good fighters on the rise. He is a solid fighter, but Elkins is a tough test. The American is hard nosed, durable, and just keeps coming forward with his wrestling heavy attack. If Carvalho can keep this fight standing he has a great chance of winning. It is a simple gameplan, but easier said then done. I expect Elkins will be able to grind him out long enough to score the decision win. I am confident in Elkins winning this fight, but Carvalho is no slouch on the ground and has all the tools to walk away with the win if things fall into place for him. I will be using Elkins in a couple of my parlays and he could breach my top 5 confidence list, but I also feel that this fight has a very good chance of hitting the total rounds over. These two fighters have combined for 14 decisions with 6 of their last 7 in the UFC going to the judges. I see the over currently sitting at about $1.45 which pays out at just a tad less then Elkins, making it another sound betting option. Elkins should win this fight and the public is currently backing him 41 to 7, but even more likely is that this fight goes to the judges.
Best Bet: Total Rounds over 2.5